V-Lab
Leonardo SpA APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
33.03%
increased by 1.22%
1 Week
33.60%
increased by 1.79%
1 Month
35.63%
increased by 3.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 85% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0624 | 17.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0795 | 28.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9167 | 267.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2835 | 9.30*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0571 | 17.25*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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