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V-Lab

Leonardo SpA APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

33.03%

increased by 1.22%

1 Week

33.60%

increased by 1.79%

1 Month

35.63%

increased by 3.82%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo SpA APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 85% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0624
17.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0795
28.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9167
267.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2835
9.30***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0571
17.25***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days