V-Lab
Leonardo SpA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
29.68%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
30.13%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
31.69%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.94) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0650 | 8.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0599 | 26.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9219 | 299.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9437 | 8.89*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
Other AGARCH Analyses on International Equities