V-Lab
Leonardo SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
35.74%
increased by 2.81%
1 Week
35.85%
increased by 2.92%
1 Month
36.22%
increased by 3.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.2568 | 5.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0615 | 31.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 447.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8295 | 9.84*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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