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Leonardo SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

35.69%

increased by 2.09%

1 Week

35.79%

increased by 2.19%

1 Month

36.16%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 4.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.2359
1.39
αARCH0.0615
7.95***
βGARCH0.9877
111.96***
νDF4.8397
2.45**

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.2359
1.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0615
7.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
111.96***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8397
2.45**

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days