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Leonardo SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

35.74%

increased by 2.81%

1 Week

35.85%

increased by 2.92%

1 Month

36.22%

increased by 3.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.2568
5.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0615
31.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
447.54***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8295
9.84***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days