V-Lab
Leonardo SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
35.69%
increased by 2.09%
1 Week
35.79%
increased by 2.19%
1 Month
36.16%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 4.84 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.2359 | 1.39 |
| αARCH | 0.0615 | 7.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9877 | 111.96*** |
| νDF | 4.8397 | 2.45** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.2359 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0615 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 111.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8397 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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