V-Lab
Leonardo SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
33.07%
increased by 2.40%
1 Week
33.41%
increased by 2.74%
1 Month
34.37%
increased by 3.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8814 | 8.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0762 | 7.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8750 | 47.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0067 | -0.58 |
| γ2 | -0.0193 | -1.10 |
| γ3 | 0.0649 | 4.58*** |
| γ4 | -0.0548 | -2.97*** |
| γ5 | 0.0104 | 0.45 |
| γ6 | 0.0098 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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