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Leonardo SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

34.96%

increased by 1.04%

1 Week

35.10%

increased by 1.18%

1 Month

35.48%

increased by 1.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo SpA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8836
8.05***
αARCH0.0762
7.75***
βGARCH0.8748
47.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0066
-0.58
γ2-0.0193
-1.11
γ30.0648
4.63***
γ4-0.0551
-3.03***
γ50.0109
0.48
γ60.0097
0.54

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8836
8.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0762
7.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8748
47.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0066
-0.58
γ2-0.0193
-1.11
γ30.0648
4.63***
γ4-0.0551
-3.03***
γ50.0109
0.48
γ60.0097
0.54

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days