V-Lab
Leonardo SpA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
38.15%
increased by 2.06%
1 Week
39.10%
increased by 3.01%
1 Month
41.74%
increased by 5.65%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8831 | 8.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0761 | 7.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8735 | 46.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0056 | -0.49 |
| γ2 | -0.0210 | -1.20 |
| γ3 | 0.0651 | 4.56*** |
| γ4 | -0.0523 | -2.72*** |
| γ5 | 0.0016 | 0.06 |
| γ6 | 0.0401 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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