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V-Lab

Leonardo SpA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

38.15%

increased by 2.06%

1 Week

39.10%

increased by 3.01%

1 Month

41.74%

increased by 5.65%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo SpA SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8831
8.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0761
7.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8735
46.51***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0056
-0.49
γ2-0.0210
-1.20
γ30.0651
4.56***
γ4-0.0523
-2.72***
γ50.0016
0.06
γ60.0401
1.34

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days