V-Lab
Leonardo SpA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
35.88%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
36.08%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
36.78%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1200 | 4.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0396 | 2.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9198 | 73.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0454 | 1.21 |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1200 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0396 | 2.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9198 | 73.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0454 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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