V-Lab
Leonardo SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
33.85%
increased by 1.62%
1 Week
35.12%
increased by 2.89%
1 Month
38.15%
increased by 5.92%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 137% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 15.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8350 | 101.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0756 | 9.53*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0129 | 4.88*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0110 | 3.42*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9870 | 274.62*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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