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V-Lab

Leonardo SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

33.85%

increased by 1.62%

1 Week

35.12%

increased by 2.89%

1 Month

38.15%

increased by 5.92%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Leonardo SpA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 137% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0552
15.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8350
101.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0756
9.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0129
4.88***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0110
3.42***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9870
274.62***

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days