V-Lab
Vienna Insurance Group Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
39.52%
decreased by 13.28%
1 Week
49.41%
decreased by 3.39%
1 Month
58.14%
increased by 5.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9080 | 2.30** |
| αARCH | 0.5326 | 3.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2149 | 2.05** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 34.0503 | 4.34*** |
| γ2 | -52.4807 | -4.52*** |
| γ3 | 27.0106 | 3.00*** |
0.747
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9080 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5326 | 3.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2149 | 2.05** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 34.0503 | 4.34*** |
| γ2 | -52.4807 | -4.52*** |
| γ3 | 27.0106 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.747
Half-life:
2 days
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