V-Lab
Vienna Insurance Group GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.79%
1 Week
31.52%
1 Month
43.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4379 | 1.88* |
| αARCH | 0.5180 | 2.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6411 | 5.98*** |
| γleverage | -0.3183 | -1.12 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4379 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5180 | 2.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6411 | 5.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3183 | -1.12 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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