V-Lab
Vienna Insurance Group MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
26.48%
1 Week
29.59%
1 Month
36.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.3306 | 15.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6993 | 91.78*** |
| γleverage | -0.3306 | -13.85*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2020 | 4.32*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4777 | 15.49*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.3620 | 15.66*** |
0.865
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3306 | 15.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6993 | 91.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3306 | -13.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2020 | 4.32*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4777 | 15.49*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3620 | 15.66*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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