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Vienna Insurance Group MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

26.48%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

29.59%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

36.34%

increased by 8.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Vienna Insurance Group MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.3306
15.23***
βGARCH0.6993
91.78***
γleverage-0.3306
-13.85***
λ₁tau intercept0.2020
4.32***
λ₂forecast adj.0.4777
15.49***
λ₃tau persistence0.3620
15.66***

0.865

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3306
15.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6993
91.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3306
-13.85***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2020
4.32***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4777
15.49***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3620
15.66***

Persistence:

0.865

Half-life:

5 days