V-Lab
Vienna Insurance Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.10%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Week
37.13%
increased by 3.54%
1 Month
42.72%
increased by 9.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8528 | 2.18** |
| αARCH | 0.5402 | 3.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2113 | 2.05** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 30.5950 | 4.23*** |
| γ2 | -46.8446 | -4.63*** |
| γ3 | 21.2826 | 4.48*** |
0.751
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8528 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5402 | 3.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2113 | 2.05** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 30.5950 | 4.23*** |
| γ2 | -46.8446 | -4.63*** |
| γ3 | 21.2826 | 4.48*** |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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