V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
108.18%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Week
109.94%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
115.26%
increased by 4.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5516 | 3.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0562 | 5.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9056 | 62.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.4526 | 0.23 |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5516 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0562 | 5.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9056 | 62.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4526 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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