V-Lab
Upc Technology Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
35.32%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
35.51%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
36.22%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~106 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0586 | 4.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0678 | 12.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9256 | 166.48*** |
| γleverage | -0.0431 | -0.16 |
0.993
Persistence106d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0586 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0678 | 12.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9256 | 166.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0431 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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