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Upc Technology Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

39.46%

increased by 1.54%

1 Week

39.61%

increased by 1.69%

1 Month

40.19%

increased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Upc Technology Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 241 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~241 daysv = 4.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst14.2576
1.60
αARCH0.0738
22.82***
βGARCH0.9971
574.38***
νDF4.6593
10.53***

0.997

Persistence

241d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.2576
1.60
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0738
22.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9971
574.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6593
10.53***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

241 days