V-Lab
Upc Technology Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
39.46%
1 Week
39.61%
1 Month
40.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 241 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.2576 | 1.60 |
| αARCH | 0.0738 | 22.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 574.38*** |
| νDF | 4.6593 | 10.53*** |
0.997
Persistence241d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.2576 | 1.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0738 | 22.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 574.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6593 | 10.53*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
241 days
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