V-Lab
Upc Technology Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
38.21%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
38.31%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
38.71%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~151 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0420 | 3.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0599 | 4.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9394 | 166.07*** |
| γleverage | -0.0078 | -0.38 |
0.995
Persistence151d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0420 | 3.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0599 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9394 | 166.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0078 | -0.38 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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