V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
53.05%
decreased by 8.59%
1 Week
57.29%
decreased by 4.35%
1 Month
70.88%
increased by 9.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0182 | 4.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.3160 | 7.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6728 | 19.93*** |
| γleverage | -0.3851 | -0.58 |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0182 | 4.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3160 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6728 | 19.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3851 | -0.58 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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