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RGF Capital Markets Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

53.05%

decreased by 8.59%

1 Week

57.29%

decreased by 4.35%

1 Month

70.88%

increased by 9.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0182
4.40***
αARCH0.3160
7.80***
βGARCH0.6728
19.93***
γleverage-0.3851
-0.58

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0182
4.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3160
7.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6728
19.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3851
-0.58

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days