V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.57%
decreased by 2.66%
1 Week
41.20%
increased by 3.97%
1 Month
59.73%
increased by 22.50%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.40) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0091 | 16.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3157 | 30.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6735 | 80.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3962 | -2.28** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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