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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

34.57%

decreased by 2.66%

1 Week

41.20%

increased by 3.97%

1 Month

59.73%

increased by 22.50%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.40) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0091
16.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3157
30.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6735
80.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3962
-2.28**

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days