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RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

83.65%

increased by 1.70%

1 Week

83.78%

increased by 1.83%

1 Month

84.23%

increased by 2.28%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 9.76 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst29.5205
0.67
αARCH0.2690
2.59***
βGARCH0.9740
25.20***
νDF9.7582
0.69

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.5205
0.67
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2690
2.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9740
25.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7582
0.69

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days