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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

38.47%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

42.04%

increased by 2.69%

1 Month

52.19%

increased by 12.84%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

26.7657
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2587
10.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9720
99.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1919
3.05***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days