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RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

44.50%

decreased by 4.60%

1 Week

46.57%

decreased by 2.53%

1 Month

53.90%

increased by 4.80%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~194 daysv = 15.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run119.8210
0.91
αscore0.3222
2.62***
βpersistence0.9964
229.65***
νDF15.1436
0.27

0.996

Persistence

194d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

119.8210
0.91
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.3222
2.62***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9964
229.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

15.1436
0.27

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

194 days