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RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

49.41%

decreased by 4.78%

1 Week

51.76%

decreased by 2.43%

1 Month

58.95%

increased by 4.76%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 9.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst27.2428
0.71
αARCH0.2619
2.62***
βGARCH0.9723
24.69***
νDF9.5662
0.71

0.972

Persistence

25d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

27.2428
0.71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2619
2.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9723
24.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5662
0.71

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days