V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
49.41%
decreased by 4.78%
1 Week
51.76%
decreased by 2.43%
1 Month
58.95%
increased by 4.76%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 9.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 27.2428 | 0.71 |
| αARCH | 0.2619 | 2.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9723 | 24.69*** |
| νDF | 9.5662 | 0.71 |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.2428 | 0.71 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2619 | 2.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9723 | 24.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5662 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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