RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
44.50%
1 Week
46.57%
1 Month
53.90%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 119.8210 | 0.91 |
| αscore | 0.3222 | 2.62*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9964 | 229.65*** |
| νDF | 15.1436 | 0.27 |
0.996
Persistence194d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 119.8210 | 0.91 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.3222 | 2.62*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 229.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 15.1436 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
194 days
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