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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

70.99%

increased by 7.84%

1 Week

71.70%

increased by 8.55%

1 Month

74.04%

increased by 10.89%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

27.7109
2.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2595
10.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9732
103.25***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3753
2.98***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days