V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
83.65%
increased by 1.70%
1 Week
83.78%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
84.23%
increased by 2.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 9.76 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 29.5205 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.2690 | 2.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9740 | 25.20*** |
| νDF | 9.7582 | 0.69 |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 29.5205 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2690 | 2.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 25.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7582 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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