V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
70.99%
increased by 7.84%
1 Week
71.70%
increased by 8.55%
1 Month
74.04%
increased by 10.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.7109 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2595 | 10.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9732 | 103.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3753 | 2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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