V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
38.47%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
42.04%
increased by 2.69%
1 Month
52.19%
increased by 12.84%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.7657 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2587 | 10.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9720 | 99.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1919 | 3.05*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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