V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
47.53%
decreased by 2.35%
1 Week
52.10%
increased by 2.22%
1 Month
63.88%
increased by 14.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 26% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3491 | 9.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3043 | 12.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6824 | 43.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0634 | -2.00** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
Other RGF Capital Markets Ltd Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on International Equities