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RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

79.29%

increased by 1.97%

1 Week

80.78%

increased by 3.46%

1 Month

86.40%

increased by 9.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 415 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~415 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5141
1.80*
αARCH0.2445
4.34***
βGARCH0.7845
12.53***
γleverage-0.0614
-0.51

0.998

Persistence

415d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5141
1.80*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2445
4.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7845
12.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0614
-0.51

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

415 days