V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
79.29%
increased by 1.97%
1 Week
80.78%
increased by 3.46%
1 Month
86.40%
increased by 9.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 415 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~415 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5141 | 1.80* |
| αARCH | 0.2445 | 4.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7845 | 12.53*** |
| γleverage | -0.0614 | -0.51 |
0.998
Persistence415d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5141 | 1.80* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2445 | 4.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7845 | 12.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0614 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
415 days
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