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RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

58.99%

decreased by 4.54%

1 Week

61.00%

decreased by 2.53%

1 Month

68.33%

increased by 4.80%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 358 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~358 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5045
1.77*
αARCH0.2360
5.14***
βGARCH0.7884
12.14***
γleverage-0.0529
-0.49

0.998

Persistence

358d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5045
1.77*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2360
5.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7884
12.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0529
-0.49

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

358 days