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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

37.23%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

40.39%

increased by 2.45%

1 Month

51.07%

increased by 13.13%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 671 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4939
6.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2386
16.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7890
51.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0574
-1.89*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

671 days