V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
53.99%
decreased by 3.22%
1 Week
56.18%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
64.11%
increased by 6.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 528 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~528 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4934 | 1.75* |
| αARCH | 0.2342 | 4.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7896 | 12.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.0503 | -0.42 |
0.999
Persistence528d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4934 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2342 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7896 | 12.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0503 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
528 days
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