V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
60.91%
increased by 4.50%
1 Week
62.85%
increased by 6.44%
1 Month
70.06%
increased by 13.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1158 trading days (~4.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4865 | 6.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2335 | 16.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7904 | 51.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0491 | -1.62 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1158 days
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