V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
37.23%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
40.39%
increased by 2.45%
1 Month
51.07%
increased by 13.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 671 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4939 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2386 | 16.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7890 | 51.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0574 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
671 days
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