RGF Capital Markets Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
58.99%
decreased by 4.54%
1 Week
61.00%
decreased by 2.53%
1 Month
68.33%
increased by 4.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 358 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~358 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5045 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.2360 | 5.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7884 | 12.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0529 | -0.49 |
0.998
Persistence358d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5045 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2360 | 5.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7884 | 12.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0529 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
358 days
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