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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

32.44%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

34.34%

increased by 1.06%

1 Month

38.07%

increased by 4.79%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3530
1.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2903
5.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6054
8.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ15.0167
0.21
γ29.7528
0.21
γ3-49.3364
-1.09
γ464.3420
1.93*
γ5-39.3508
-2.06**
γ66.7117
0.37
γ713.6560
0.95
γ8-22.4646
-2.54**
γ911.6387
0.94
γ108.0346
0.49

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days