V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
32.44%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
34.34%
increased by 1.06%
1 Month
38.07%
increased by 4.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3530 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2903 | 5.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6054 | 8.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5.0167 | 0.21 |
| γ2 | 9.7528 | 0.21 |
| γ3 | -49.3364 | -1.09 |
| γ4 | 64.3420 | 1.93* |
| γ5 | -39.3508 | -2.06** |
| γ6 | 6.7117 | 0.37 |
| γ7 | 13.6560 | 0.95 |
| γ8 | -22.4646 | -2.54** |
| γ9 | 11.6387 | 0.94 |
| γ10 | 8.0346 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
Other RGF Capital Markets Ltd Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities