V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
51.83%
decreased by 6.97%
1 Week
53.95%
decreased by 4.85%
1 Month
60.41%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7461 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.3348 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6357 | 9.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.9831 | -0.17 |
| γ2 | 20.9427 | 0.57 |
| γ3 | -85.0209 | -1.43 |
| γ4 | 164.8173 | 1.96** |
| γ5 | -154.4892 | -2.33** |
| γ6 | 76.5725 | 3.14*** |
| γ7 | -33.5468 | -3.52*** |
| γ8 | 15.1981 | 0.97 |
| γ9 | 9.9878 | 0.40 |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7461 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3348 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6357 | 9.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.9831 | -0.17 |
| γ2 | 20.9427 | 0.57 |
| γ3 | -85.0209 | -1.43 |
| γ4 | 164.8173 | 1.96** |
| γ5 | -154.4892 | -2.33** |
| γ6 | 76.5725 | 3.14*** |
| γ7 | -33.5468 | -3.52*** |
| γ8 | 15.1981 | 0.97 |
| γ9 | 9.9878 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
Other RGF Capital Markets Ltd Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities