RGF Capital Markets Ltd EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
67.00%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
66.72%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
65.86%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1131 | 0.98 |
| αARCH | 0.2156 | 2.32** |
| βGARCH | 0.9592 | 19.74*** |
| γleverage | -0.0497 | -1.11 |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1131 | 0.98 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2156 | 2.32** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9592 | 19.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0497 | -1.11 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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