V-Lab
Csu Digital Sa Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
27.96%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
29.53%
increased by 1.59%
1 Month
34.05%
increased by 6.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2949 | 6.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.2159 | 8.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7511 | 44.64*** |
| γleverage | -0.0047 | -0.11 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2949 | 6.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2159 | 8.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7511 | 44.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0047 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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