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V-Lab

Csu Digital Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

23.14%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

24.44%

increased by 0.62%

1 Month

27.05%

increased by 3.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Csu Digital Sa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1405
4.45***
αARCH0.1136
6.55***
βGARCH0.7847
27.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0597
-0.84
γ20.1541
1.56
γ3-0.1710
-3.10***
γ40.1252
2.27**
γ5-0.1098
-2.24**
γ60.1010
3.24***

0.898

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1405
4.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1136
6.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7847
27.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0597
-0.84
γ20.1541
1.56
γ3-0.1710
-3.10***
γ40.1252
2.27**
γ5-0.1098
-2.24**
γ60.1010
3.24***

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days