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V-Lab
V-Lab

Csu Digital Sa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

27.88%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

30.09%

increased by 1.44%

1 Month

32.94%

increased by 4.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Csu Digital Sa MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1145
4.74***
βGARCH0.6174
12.66***
γleverage0.0327
1.10
λ₁tau intercept0.8659
1.20
λ₂forecast adj.0.2968
1.25
λ₃tau persistence0.5780
1.73*

0.748

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1145
4.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6174
12.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0327
1.10
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8659
1.20
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2968
1.25
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5780
1.73*

Persistence:

0.748

Half-life:

2 days