V-Lab
Csu Digital Sa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
27.88%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
30.09%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
32.94%
increased by 4.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1145 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6174 | 12.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.0327 | 1.10 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.8659 | 1.20 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2968 | 1.25 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5780 | 1.73* |
0.748
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6174 | 12.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0327 | 1.10 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8659 | 1.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2968 | 1.25 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5780 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.748
Half-life:
2 days
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