V-Lab
Csu Digital Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
27.29%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Week
28.81%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
33.35%
increased by 4.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-lifev = 3.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.7896 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.0948 | 6.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9700 | 39.14*** |
| νDF | 3.6621 | 3.02*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.7896 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0948 | 6.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9700 | 39.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6621 | 3.02*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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