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Csu Digital Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

27.29%

decreased by 1.75%

1 Week

28.81%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

33.35%

increased by 4.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Csu Digital Sa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-lifev = 3.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst8.7896
1.27
αARCH0.0948
6.12***
βGARCH0.9700
39.14***
νDF3.6621
3.02***

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.7896
1.27
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0948
6.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9700
39.14***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6621
3.02***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days