Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
77.12%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
81.72%
increased by 3.73%
1 Month
92.12%
increased by 14.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.3947 | 1.38 |
| αARCH | 0.2171 | 1.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.7784 | 11.21*** |
| γleverage | -0.1458 | -0.73 |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3947 | 1.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2171 | 1.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7784 | 11.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1458 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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