V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
28.84%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Week
29.09%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
30.04%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 442 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 32% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0335 | 27.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1417 | 38.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8342 | 396.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0451 | 7.61*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
442 days
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