V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
27.08%
increased by 1.12%
1 Week
27.34%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
28.36%
increased by 2.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 408 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~408 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0335 | 6.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1410 | 9.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8345 | 99.28*** |
| γleverage | 0.0455 | 1.92* |
0.998
Persistence408d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0335 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1410 | 9.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8345 | 99.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0455 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
408 days
Other Deutsche Bank AG Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on International Equities