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V-Lab

Deutsche Bank AG AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

27.87%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

27.99%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

28.48%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Bank AG AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0219
7.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0562
37.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9396
704.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3125
7.06***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

162 days