China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.71%
1 Week
13.89%
1 Month
11.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 0.63 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0340 | 4.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.2113 | 14.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7751 | 49.16*** |
| γleverage | -0.0033 | -0.11 |
| δpower | 0.6342 | 2.66*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0340 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2113 | 14.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7751 | 49.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0033 | -0.11 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6342 | 2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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