V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
14.64%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
14.74%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
15.14%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0122 | 3.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0552 | 4.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9487 | 148.09*** |
| γleverage | -0.0219 | -1.15 |
0.993
Persistence97d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0122 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9487 | 148.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0219 | -1.15 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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