V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.74%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
16.80%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
17.05%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0121 | 3.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0548 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9491 | 148.97*** |
| γleverage | -0.0220 | -1.16 |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0121 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9491 | 148.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0220 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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