V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
22.33%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
22.32%
increased by 0.83%
1 Month
22.25%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 65% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0122 | 12.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 16.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9489 | 593.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0217 | -4.55*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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