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China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

17.56%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

17.68%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

18.13%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysv = 4.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8718
1.18
αARCH0.0548
12.29***
βGARCH0.9950
260.95***
νDF4.8635
3.47***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8718
1.18
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0548
12.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9950
260.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8635
3.47***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days