V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
17.56%
1 Week
17.68%
1 Month
18.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8718 | 1.18 |
| αARCH | 0.0548 | 12.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9950 | 260.95*** |
| νDF | 4.8635 | 3.47*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8718 | 1.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 12.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 260.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8635 | 3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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