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China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

14.74%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

14.92%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

15.56%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~134 daysv = 4.87 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8182
1.16
αARCH0.0553
12.13***
βGARCH0.9948
248.09***
νDF4.8652
3.40***

0.995

Persistence

134d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8182
1.16
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0553
12.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9948
248.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8652
3.40***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days