V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
25.83%
increased by 2.06%
1 Week
25.85%
increased by 2.08%
1 Month
25.92%
increased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0667 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 51.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,215.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8522 | 14.96*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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