China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
17.04%
1 Week
17.16%
1 Month
17.61%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.0413 | 1.24 |
| αscore | 0.0571 | 11.76*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9955 | 306.58*** |
| νDF | 5.6759 | 2.64*** |
0.995
Persistence152d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.0413 | 1.24 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0571 | 11.76*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 306.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6759 | 2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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