V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
14.74%
1 Week
14.92%
1 Month
15.56%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8182 | 1.16 |
| αARCH | 0.0553 | 12.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9948 | 248.09*** |
| νDF | 4.8652 | 3.40*** |
0.995
Persistence134d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8182 | 1.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0553 | 12.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9948 | 248.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8652 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
134 days
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