V-Lab
DB Securities Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
40.91%
decreased by 2.69%
1 Week
40.39%
decreased by 3.21%
1 Month
38.69%
decreased by 4.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0178 | 6.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1104 | 10.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8558 | 66.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0453 | 1.21 |
| γ2 | -0.0048 | -0.08 |
| γ3 | -0.1748 | -4.12*** |
| γ4 | 0.2573 | 6.27*** |
| γ5 | -0.2131 | -5.04*** |
| γ6 | 0.1554 | 3.21*** |
| γ7 | -0.1003 | -2.07** |
| γ8 | 0.0546 | 1.04 |
| γ9 | -0.0227 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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