V-Lab
DB Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
47.60%
decreased by 2.77%
1 Week
49.15%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Month
52.56%
increased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 22% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1200 | 31.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7720 | 83.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0266 | 4.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0273 | 4.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0384 | 6.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9588 | 151.62*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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