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V-Lab

DB Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

47.60%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Week

49.15%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Month

52.56%

increased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DB Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 22% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1200
31.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7720
83.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0266
4.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0273
4.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0384
6.53***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9588
151.62***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days