V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
74.51%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
78.98%
increased by 3.23%
1 Month
83.70%
increased by 7.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8470 | 5.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1225 | 5.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6370 | 10.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2510 | 3.36*** |
| γ2 | -0.5072 | -4.77*** |
| γ3 | 0.4600 | 4.65*** |
| γ4 | -0.2762 | -3.05*** |
| γ5 | 0.0901 | 1.00 |
| γ6 | -0.0741 | -0.81 |
| γ7 | 0.1454 | 1.78* |
| γ8 | -0.1431 | -2.76*** |
0.760
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8470 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1225 | 5.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6370 | 10.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2510 | 3.36*** |
| γ2 | -0.5072 | -4.77*** |
| γ3 | 0.4600 | 4.65*** |
| γ4 | -0.2762 | -3.05*** |
| γ5 | 0.0901 | 1.00 |
| γ6 | -0.0741 | -0.81 |
| γ7 | 0.1454 | 1.78* |
| γ8 | -0.1431 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.760
Half-life:
3 days
Other ams-OSRAM AG Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities