V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
85.10%
increased by 8.87%
1 Week
83.63%
increased by 7.40%
1 Month
81.93%
increased by 5.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8477 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1222 | 5.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6389 | 10.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2548 | 3.40*** |
| γ2 | -0.5147 | -4.79*** |
| γ3 | 0.4661 | 4.67*** |
| γ4 | -0.2802 | -3.07*** |
| γ5 | 0.0948 | 1.03 |
| γ6 | -0.0823 | -0.89 |
| γ7 | 0.1552 | 1.90* |
| γ8 | -0.1488 | -2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.761
Half-life:
3 days
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