ams-OSRAM AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
78.10%
decreased by 5.42%
1 Week
80.02%
decreased by 3.50%
1 Month
82.05%
decreased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8589 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1247 | 5.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6268 | 10.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2628 | 3.53*** |
| γ2 | -0.5259 | -4.85*** |
| γ3 | 0.4695 | 4.66*** |
| γ4 | -0.2802 | -3.04*** |
| γ5 | 0.0977 | 1.05 |
| γ6 | -0.0916 | -0.98 |
| γ7 | 0.1645 | 2.03** |
| γ8 | -0.1526 | -3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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