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V-Lab

ams-OSRAM AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

78.10%

decreased by 5.42%

1 Week

80.02%

decreased by 3.50%

1 Month

82.05%

decreased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ams-OSRAM AG S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 14, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8589
6.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1247
5.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6268
10.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.2628
3.53***
γ2-0.5259
-4.85***
γ30.4695
4.66***
γ4-0.2802
-3.04***
γ50.0977
1.05
γ6-0.0916
-0.98
γ70.1645
2.03**
γ8-0.1526
-3.04***

Persistence:

0.751

Half-life:

2 days