Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ams-OSRAM AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

74.51%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Week

78.98%

increased by 3.23%

1 Month

83.70%

increased by 7.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ams-OSRAM AG S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 14, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8470
5.99***
αARCH0.1225
5.72***
βGARCH0.6370
10.40***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.2510
3.36***
γ2-0.5072
-4.77***
γ30.4600
4.65***
γ4-0.2762
-3.05***
γ50.0901
1.00
γ6-0.0741
-0.81
γ70.1454
1.78*
γ8-0.1431
-2.76***

0.760

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8470
5.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1225
5.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6370
10.40***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.2510
3.36***
γ2-0.5072
-4.77***
γ30.4600
4.65***
γ4-0.2762
-3.05***
γ50.0901
1.00
γ6-0.0741
-0.81
γ70.1454
1.78*
γ8-0.1431
-2.76***

Persistence:

0.760

Half-life:

3 days