V-Lab
ams-OSRAM AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
77.87%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
80.75%
increased by 1.71%
1 Month
83.79%
increased by 4.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8521 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1235 | 5.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6301 | 10.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2580 | 3.47*** |
| γ2 | -0.5184 | -4.83*** |
| γ3 | 0.4657 | 4.66*** |
| γ4 | -0.2788 | -3.05*** |
| γ5 | 0.0957 | 1.04 |
| γ6 | -0.0871 | -0.94 |
| γ7 | 0.1620 | 1.99** |
| γ8 | -0.1545 | -3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
Other ams-OSRAM AG Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities