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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

58.64%

increased by 1.18%

1 Week

58.36%

increased by 0.90%

1 Month

57.46%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:46 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Aerospace Fastener EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0816
26.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1762
32.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9669
753.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0068
1.63

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days