V-Lab
National Aerospace Fastener EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
58.64%
increased by 1.18%
1 Week
58.36%
increased by 0.90%
1 Month
57.46%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:46 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0816 | 26.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1762 | 32.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9669 | 753.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0068 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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