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V-Lab

National Aerospace Fastener MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

57.64%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Week

57.64%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Month

57.65%

decreased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:46 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of National Aerospace Fastener MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0534
2.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0839
33.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9121
203.01***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

173 days