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V-Lab

Aqylon Nexus Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

67.15%

increased by 1.91%

1 Week

66.95%

increased by 1.71%

1 Month

66.54%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Aqylon Nexus Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 7, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7021
4.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1489
6.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7456
19.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0446
0.59
γ20.0134
0.13
γ3-0.2267
-3.45***
γ40.3468
4.55***
γ5-0.2223
-1.95*
γ60.0044
0.03
γ70.1178
1.36
γ8-0.1283
-2.36**

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days