V-Lab
Aqylon Nexus Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
67.15%
increased by 1.91%
1 Week
66.95%
increased by 1.71%
1 Month
66.54%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7021 | 4.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1489 | 6.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7456 | 19.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0446 | 0.59 |
| γ2 | 0.0134 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | -0.2267 | -3.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.3468 | 4.55*** |
| γ5 | -0.2223 | -1.95* |
| γ6 | 0.0044 | 0.03 |
| γ7 | 0.1178 | 1.36 |
| γ8 | -0.1283 | -2.36** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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