Aqylon Nexus Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.29%
decreased by 3.13%
1 Week
56.31%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
61.97%
increased by 5.55%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7819 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1576 | 7.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7286 | 19.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0632 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.0079 | -0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.0747 | -0.54 |
| γ4 | -0.1792 | -1.37 |
| γ5 | 0.5132 | 3.94*** |
| γ6 | -0.4782 | -2.66*** |
| γ7 | 0.2236 | 1.12 |
| γ8 | -0.1042 | -0.61 |
| γ9 | 0.1295 | 0.94 |
| γ10 | -0.1516 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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