V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
31.19%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
33.30%
increased by 3.10%
1 Month
33.88%
increased by 3.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4753 | 3.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.2658 | 3.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -10.9306 | -2.69*** |
| γ2 | 14.5186 | 2.52** |
| γ3 | -3.4045 | -1.15 |
| γ4 | -2.6136 | -1.18 |
| γ5 | 3.5593 | 1.41 |
| γ6 | -1.4202 | -0.46 |
0.266
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4753 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2658 | 3.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -10.9306 | -2.69*** |
| γ2 | 14.5186 | 2.52** |
| γ3 | -3.4045 | -1.15 |
| γ4 | -2.6136 | -1.18 |
| γ5 | 3.5593 | 1.41 |
| γ6 | -1.4202 | -0.46 |
Persistence:
0.266
Half-life:
1 days
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