V-Lab
Samhallsbygg I Nor GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
52.34%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
53.50%
increased by 1.06%
1 Month
57.71%
increased by 5.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3259 | 0.75 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9532 | 37.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.0788 | 1.85* |
0.993
Persistence94d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3259 | 0.75 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 37.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0788 | 1.85* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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