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V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

57.26%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Week

57.29%

decreased by 1.47%

1 Month

57.42%

decreased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 58213809 trading days (~231007.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0071
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0614
1.75*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9386
34.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0549
0.44
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9918
2.29**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

58213809 days