V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
57.26%
1 Week
57.29%
1 Month
57.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 58213809 trading days (~231007.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9386 | 34.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0549 | 0.44 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9918 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
58213809 days
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