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Universal Music Group N V GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

1,139.70%

increased by 149.75%

1 Week

1,139.01%

increased by 149.06%

1 Month

1,136.27%

increased by 146.32%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026
Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2,039.3620
7.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1385
97.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
7,345.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0006

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days