V-Lab
Arlitech Electronic Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
112.33%
decreased by 22.71%
1 Week
112.55%
decreased by 22.49%
1 Month
113.34%
decreased by 21.70%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 57.5278 | 3.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1411 | 98.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9868 | 305.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1679 | 375.26*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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