V-Lab
Casa Emtia Petrol Kimyevi Ve GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
49.36%
increased by 3.32%
1 Week
56.30%
increased by 10.26%
1 Month
73.12%
increased by 27.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 25, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 42.2596 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2203 | 30.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 70.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7725 | 33.62*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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