V-Lab
Casa Emtia Petrol Kimyevi Ve GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
48.74%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
56.41%
increased by 7.46%
1 Month
63.72%
increased by 14.77%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 25, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 47% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3811 | 14.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3211 | 17.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4827 | 28.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1028 | -3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.752
Half-life:
2 days
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