V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
22.75%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
23.34%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
25.48%
increased by 2.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0467 | 10.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 26.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9217 | 284.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0730 | 2.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2036 | 16.93*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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