Skip to main content
V-Lab

Cargills Ceylon PLC Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

22.75%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

23.34%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

25.48%

increased by 2.09%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cargills Ceylon PLC APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0467
10.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0783
26.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9217
284.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0730
2.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2036
16.93***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days