V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
23.38%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
23.85%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
25.53%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0688 | 10.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 12.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9252 | 302.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0206 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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