V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
22.73%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
23.14%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
24.57%
increased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0653 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0574 | 15.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9290 | 291.14*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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