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Cargills Ceylon PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.12%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

24.19%

increased by 1.27%

1 Month

25.56%

increased by 2.64%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cargills Ceylon PLC S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8918
5.81***
αARCH0.2357
6.09***
βGARCH0.4004
5.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2069
-1.87*
γ20.4651
2.92***
γ3-0.3411
-3.51***
γ40.0840
0.84
γ50.0703
0.69
γ6-0.1313
-1.42
γ70.0797
1.09

0.636

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8918
5.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2357
6.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4004
5.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2069
-1.87*
γ20.4651
2.92***
γ3-0.3411
-3.51***
γ40.0840
0.84
γ50.0703
0.69
γ6-0.1313
-1.42
γ70.0797
1.09

Persistence:

0.636

Half-life:

2 days