V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
21.16%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
23.60%
increased by 3.10%
1 Month
25.25%
increased by 4.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8718 | 5.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2339 | 5.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4122 | 6.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2124 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 0.4721 | 2.91*** |
| γ3 | -0.3408 | -3.44*** |
| γ4 | 0.0780 | 0.77 |
| γ5 | 0.0785 | 0.77 |
| γ6 | -0.1389 | -1.48 |
| γ7 | 0.0847 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.646
Half-life:
2 days
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