V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.12%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
24.19%
increased by 1.27%
1 Month
25.56%
increased by 2.64%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8918 | 5.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.2357 | 6.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4004 | 5.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2069 | -1.87* |
| γ2 | 0.4651 | 2.92*** |
| γ3 | -0.3411 | -3.51*** |
| γ4 | 0.0840 | 0.84 |
| γ5 | 0.0703 | 0.69 |
| γ6 | -0.1313 | -1.42 |
| γ7 | 0.0797 | 1.09 |
0.636
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8918 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2357 | 6.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4004 | 5.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2069 | -1.87* |
| γ2 | 0.4651 | 2.92*** |
| γ3 | -0.3411 | -3.51*** |
| γ4 | 0.0840 | 0.84 |
| γ5 | 0.0703 | 0.69 |
| γ6 | -0.1313 | -1.42 |
| γ7 | 0.0797 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.636
Half-life:
2 days
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