V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.39%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
27.59%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
28.33%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0385 | 19.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0887 | 38.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9113 | 371.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2308 | 14.40*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4317 | 30.91*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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