V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
16.71%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
17.21%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
18.98%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0332 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0833 | 10.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9087 | 114.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3385 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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